Anthropic is having a moment in the private markets; SpaceX could spoil the party

Surge in Secondary Market Activity

Glen Anderson, president of Rainmaker Securities, has observed tremendous growth in private share trading since 2010. What started with a few institutional investors has expanded to thousands, ushering in a highly dynamic secondary market. Currently, three major players dominate discussions: Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX.

Anthropic's Soaring Demand

Anthropic stands out as the most sought-after company in the secondary market, with demand for its shares far exceeding available supply. This surge was partly spurred by a recent, high-profile clash with the Department of Defense, which unexpectedly boosted Anthropic’s public image and made it a favorite among investors. Many buyers are eager to invest, even while sellers remain scarce, distinguishing Anthropic from competitors like OpenAI.

Comparing OpenAI and Anthropic

While OpenAI remains a prominent player, it does not match the current enthusiasm for Anthropic. Shares of OpenAI are trading at lower valuations than its latest primary funding round, reflecting market caution. Institutional investors still seek exposure to both companies, as the ultimate long-term winner among AI innovators remains uncertain.

SpaceX Enters the Spotlight

Unlike many other firms impacted by market corrections between 2022 and 2024, SpaceX has maintained steady growth in its share value. This is attributed to prudent pricing strategies that avoided overvaluing private rounds. Early investors have seen tremendous returns, with the company’s valuation skyrocketing from $12 billion in 2015 to over $1 trillion as it prepares for a highly anticipated IPO.

IPO Timing Creates Market Uncertainty

SpaceX’s confidential IPO filing has generated excitement and increased demand for its shares, but it also introduces fresh challenges for Anthropic and OpenAI. If SpaceX’s IPO attracts significant capital, subsequent listings may face diminished investor interest and stricter scrutiny. The order in which these tech giants go public could heavily impact their market performance.

For more insights, read the original article by Connie Loizos on TechCrunch.